The trade deadline line has come and gone, and in reading some of the media coverage and gauging the crowd reaction, there’s a significant contingent of fans that are slaughtering the Evgeny Kuznetsov move. My own friends and leagues echoed that sentiment, too. Immediately, the contrarian in me wanted to fight back outreight: he was a vital part of a Stanley Cup run and has a respectable 568 points in 725 games(+39 +/-). I have watched and tuned in to my fair share of Capitals games, and for a 31 year old, he’s still clearly competent and fast enough to be an NHL’er, even if he does seem to have lost a step. So why the outcry?
I think Capitals fans have about 7.85 million reasons to outcry, and they’re green. For Kuznetsov, falling into a column a lot of older(ish) professional athletes find themselves in, that kind of price tag often exceeds their production. There is almost an excessive amount of negative chatter that arises about players like this, and it almost always is heavily exaggerated. Kuz may not be playing to the level of being worth $7.85 mil, but he is still an NHL-caliber player: while not super fast, his acceleration is world class, and he is still strong on the pick. He can gain the zone and speed around defenders while keeping them on his hip or behind him like a NBA point guard.
I tend to analyze and run every bit of information through a fantasy perspective, and there is a distinction between fantasy relevance and skill level. There is a human element to sports and fantasy; sometimes coaches simply play players who they are comfortable with in spite of the stats and current play. Also, coaches will seem to bench players who are technically "better" (or limit their ice time) for a variety of other reasons. Players have lives outside of sports, which sometimes affect ice play. Intangible factors like that are not quantifiable from a fantasy perspective- or arguably, from any perspective really. This just goes to show the level of nuance in professional sports.
With that being said, I initially started this blog and website because I feel like the growing amount of fantasy coverage has been primarily taken over by predictive analytics. Analytics have taken over almost every major sport, and that of course especially applies to the fantasy world. Industry experts make spreadsheets with projected stats based on a myriad of data points and spit out projections with little to no nuance, human element, coaching philosophy- and often without actually watching any of the games! Entire front offices and management hires are being made simply based on individuals’ analytical backgrounds. Not only has this altered how teams commit to personnel decisions, but it has transformed the fantasy landscape.
This is where I found my advantage. I managed to obtain a 60% win rate in basketball leagues, and a 70% win rate in my fantasy football leagues- by finding outliers in ADP ranks, taking advantage of public sentiment, and buying low on players. Making trades and/or drafting players can be made successfully based on an inherent belief that a player might outperform their FANTASY value, while in “real” life, confidence or expectations about that player remain low. While fan feedback isn't necessarily the best method to value fantasy players, it can allow you to have a finger on the pulse of how public sentiment could influence the decisions an organization makes about particular players’ futures. Like me, I suggest you take the time to watch some of the games and do your own reading and research; better yet, simply subscribe to One Team at a Time, and let me do it for you 😉.
Insert the trade of a player like Kuznetsov. Kuz wasn't even on a major team; he was hiding down in the minors, so his value after the trade was instantly higher, since you can't accrue points in the minors. Fans pushed back; people have been ridiculing Carolina; and analytics aficionados have immediately come out of the woodwork to assert that this was a horrible move. Don Waddell, the GM of Carolina, obviously believed there’s value in Kuz, enough to give up a pretty pricey third rounder. This decision might motivate the coaching personnel and management to get the most out of their investment and give Kuznetsov the playing time he needs to prove what he’s still got.
Teams in hockey tend to fall into two categories. First, we’ve got teams that have an identity and a style of play that they impose on the opponent every game, no matter the circumstances, with little to no variation and with the philosophy that mastering their style of play will allow them to win. Second, we have teams that will practice to be malleable so they can bend and mold their style of play to counter whatever the opposing play style may be, mirroring their philosophy after an ever fluid game of chess. Carolina exemplifies the first type of team and plays in the image of their coach Rod Brind'Amour: aggressive on the forecheck and suffocating opponent defenders with a high octane pressure style. The Hurricanes have a highly skilled defense, and every year, they always have less shots on goal than other NHL teams. This team identity and philosophy reinforces their choice to bring on Kuz- and therefore, strengthens his fantasy relevance on this team. He may not be relevant in category leagues because he doesn't get a lot of stats coverage, but he is worth a long, hard look in ESPN points leagues.
Obviously, we have the ability of hindsight in writing this article because Kuznetsov has played a few games with Carolina already, and he has passed the eye test. Regardless, we can take this example of the relationship between Kuznetsov and initial public sentiment on his trade and apply it in almost every league and many given situations. A rule of thumb to pay attention to is that sometimes players can be more valuable in our fantasy teams than on their real teams, and we can leverage even negative public sentiment to get players on the cheap.
Photo Credits:
Of Evgeny: Michael Miller
Of Evgeny shooting on goal: All-Pro Reels
Of Waddell: Benjamin Reed
Of Brind-Amour: Michael Miller
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