Was Sheldon Keefe the problem in Toronto? Fans seem to be split over whether it was his fault or that of the core Toronto squad. However, management was unequivocal in their opinion and fired him days after they lost to the Boston Bruins in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference first round of the Stanley Cup play-offs. Toronto replaced him shortly thereafter with no-nonsense coach Craig Berube, formerly of the St. Louis Blues, whom he led to their first Stanley Cup in 2019. It also didn’t take long for Sheldon to find a new home, and only a couple weeks after parting ways with the Leafs, he was welcomed to New Jersey as the Devils’ next head coach.
Regardless of what you think the Leafs needed for better playoff success, Sheldon Keefe was a fantastic regular season coach, and fantasy seasons only take place in the regular season. Last year, Keefe coached Toronto to 7th best Power Play, and his new team in New Jersey came in at a respectable 13th place- even without Power Play extraordinaire Dougie Hamilton most of the season. Toronto boasted a very top end roster, and Sheldon has now inherited yet another gold mine with New Jersey's core. To strengthen an already decent roster, the Devils are reportedly trying to shop their 10th overall pick for a win-now type player, and the hiring of Sheldon tells the world that New Jersey has no intentions of entering into a rebuild season.
From a fantasy perspective, it’s generally safe to assume that teams who choose not to rebuild are going to favor playing their vets over the rookies. But in New Jersey, there is a fair bit of roster turnover expected with most, if not all, of the UFA's walking, including Tomas Nosek (UFA) and Chris Tierney (UFA). There’s a better chance that forward Nolan Foote (RFA) and Dawson Mercer (RFA) will be retained. However, defensemen Nick DeSimone and Brendan Smith are both expected to walk in free agency. As a result, there are some guys- primarily Simon Nemec and Alexander Holtz- who will be settling into the lineup, and barring any major trades or roster shakeups, they will be seeing either major playtime increases or much better linemates and deployment. Former # 2 overall pick Simon Nemec is a smooth skating dual threat defenseman who is better than any defenseman Keefe has coached to date at the NHL level (and let alone any player like Dougie Hamilton). As Nemec grows more accustomed to the NHL game- and if he can put on some extra pounds- I see a major uptick in Nemec's playtime and therefore his potential fantasy production.
Alexander Holtz was drafted to much fanfare, expected to have a bright future as a flashy scorer. While being reliable in the AHL, Holtz hasn't found his stride yet in the NHL. New Jersey fans and pundits alike posit a variety of reasons why he’s not realizing his full potential: different linemates, short minutes, and a former coach who would keep players on a tight leash for defensive lapses. With Keefe now at the helm, Holtz’s fantasy value could see an uptick based on an increase in ice time alone. The book might be out on him returning his #7 overall draft value, but he's still 22, and he can still be relevant in our fantasy leagues this upcoming year- despite this past season’s lackluster 28 points in 82 games that left such a poor taste in fantasy owners’ mouths.
Taking a look around at the rest of the Devils’ core, Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes, and Jesper Bratt seem to be locked in and worth their ADP wherever consensus lands. I still see Nico Hischier hitting another gear with his strong play that continued out of the NHL season into the world championships. He shows an absolute world class ability at being a two-way center, and year in and year out, he competes as a serious contender for the Selke Trophy. With Sheldon Keefe's deployment, I definitely think Hischier can achieve a point per game pace again.
I think Timo Meir is the Devils player who will have the biggest turnaround- and not just because of Keefe. This past season, he underwent shoulder surgery, before which he turned in a dismal -28 52 point campaign. This campaign was disappointing, both by his own standards and especially in light of his sizable contract. Before his eight year $70 million contract, Timo had a few point-per-game seasons, and hopefully, he can return to his old fighting form, healthy and under new leadership. At age 27, he’s still in his prime, and now that he’s post-surgery, I’m looking for Timo to enjoy a much more productive campaign- and therefore higher fantasy value- this upcoming season. However, for all in +/- leagues, it’s relevant to note that Timo is a career -28 in 541 games.
The biggest question mark for the Devils is what's going on in the net: their current situation is even more abysmal than Toronto’s. Jake Allen still has one year left after having been acquired from Montreal this past March, and the reclamation project of Kaapo Kahkonen is iffy, but neither of these options exude a lot of confidence right now. In the postseason chatter, New Jersey has been linked to both Markstrom and Saros, and while both of them are a step up, there is no way in hell New Jersey doesn't sign a new goalie in free agency or trade for one. I’d wager, too, that they are shipping that 10th overall pick for a goalie. Obviously a talented net minder would be a plus. But at this point, any goalie on this team is going to be fantasy relevant- even an average one- as the core roster that’s shaping up can certainly prop up even a serviceable goalie.
This past season, the Devils still yielded decent fantasy results, and former New Jersey coach Luke Hughes got all the ride he could without his star Dougie Hamilton. Sheldon Keefe gets to go from one great situation to another, and our fantasy rosters will probably see a substantial uptick as a result of him landing in New Jersey.
Photo Credit: The AHL- Calder Cup- Thomas Skrlj, June 14, 2018
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