Players to watch who very well might outperform ADP
Jayden Daniels: Washington Commanders, QB
Jayden lands himself on a Washington team that struggled to protect the quarterback all last year. The O-line was patchwork at best, and the receivers really struggled to find separation. This is a recipe for disaster for any QB, especially a rookie like Sam Howell- who I thought did admirably, given the circumstances. But with the year’s draft- Insert dual threat reigning Heisman winner, Jayden Daniels. With Washington's subpar wide out core, we might see a higher running floor for Daniels- and I'd be comfortable with saying 800 yards on the ground, though the touchdown numbers are a bit harder to pin down with so many other variables at play. This is a very good floor for a fantasy quarterback, which makes him someone definitely worth considering. While the Commanders as a whole might not be very good this year, Daniels might be the lone bright spot.
2. Bo Nix: Denver Broncos, QB
Keeping with the quarterback theme, we're going to go with Bo Nix. If you read my initial assessment on the quarterback class of 2024, you'll notice I wasn't super high on Bo's tape. Luckily for Bo, he was drafted to a team and head coach that have an offense perfectly designed for what Bo is good at, and that's quickly getting the ball out in a system centered around quick intermediate passes. During the draft interview process, Sean Payton went on a 45 minute rant about how much he loved Bo, and true to his word, got his guy (unlike when he wanted Patrick Mahomes, but the Chiefs snatched him up). Bo was never really asked or made to step out of his wheelhouse, and many considered him a "system QB." I know I was one of them, but as far as systems go, Sean Payton's helped lead Drew Brees to break NFL records. And in terms of fantasy relevance, we only need Bo to operate at even half of that. His ADP might be held down because his receiving core is not top tier, but despite this, he can still make an impact.
3. Blake Corum: Los Angeles Rams, RB
As a Michigan fan, my bias might show through, or maybe I’m high on Blake because I saw so much of him these past few years. Corum has great strength for being 5'8,” and he overshadowed all running backs at the combine by benching 225 pounds for 27 reps! Under Sean McVay's scheme, all Rams running backs have had fantasy relevance. Kyren Williams, the current starting running back, was a fantasy savior last season, and he’s only 194 pounds- plus an injury risk given his volume in that offense. If I have Williams, I'm taking Blake as a cuff or a late round dart throw; in my opinion, he has the potential to be one of those players who could go from RB3 to top 15 in a matter of moments.
4. Keon Coleman: Buffalo Bills, WR
The Bills were so confident in Keon (or other receivers in this draft range) that they traded the earlier pick (Xavier Worthy) to their inter-conference rivals, let Gabe Davis go to free agency (Jaguars), and traded Stephon Diggs. Joe Brady transformed the Bill's offense on the fly last year, and as a result, they developed a more ball-dominant run game to alleviate Josh Allen from having to be superman all the time. But with the Bills having vacated some of their targets just to get Keon, we can see him having instant fantasy relevance- especially with a talent like Josh Allen at QB. While Joe Brady did get a familiar toy by picking up Curtis Samuel from the Commanders, Keon’s volume has him as a WR 3 at his bottom, and if training camp’s reports come out well for him, I honestly might shoot above his ADP.
5. Xavier Worthy: Kansas City, WR
I feel like I would be remiss in my fantasy report duties if I didn't mention Patrick Mahomes’ new wide out target, especially with the pending suspension of Chiefs' Rashee Rice. In freshman season at the University of Texas, Rice broke records and brought in 939 yards catching with 7 touchdowns on 79 receptions. Worthy really strikes me as a blow-the-top-off-the-defense pick cut from the same cloth as a DeSean Jackson, and a window might appear for Worthy to get some high volume with Rice being sidelined for a few games. Upon Rice's return, Worthy might continue to pose some solid fantasy value, as Rice and Kelce might take up enough coverage from defending safeties to open up Worthy on deep routes.
Players who will probably NOT outperform ADP- either because of fan hype and or because overeager analysts might subjectively project them too highly
Caleb Williams: Bears, QB
I wrote a dedicated piece on Caleb, and I still hold those same opinions and am way lower on him than some other traditional media outlets. I still think he can be a good- if not great- player, but because of the Bears’ receivers in addition to the fanfare surrounding him, his ADP will be artificially inflated too highly for my tastes. Last year, Justin Fields had half the receiver core and often played hero ball, trying to run any chance he got. But it seemed like coach Matt Eberflus didn’t want this style of play and reeled him in, cutting into Field’s fantasy numbers as a result. Conversely, Caleb's skills lean more towards escaping the pocket and making off base throws, seeing him scramble less for first downs than Fields did. Since Caleb doesn’t have much of a running floor, I feel like the hype machine- and not his actual pass execution- is going to make him worth too much in fantasy drafts to actually pay out and be worth it.
2. Xavier Legette: Panthers, WR
The Panthers last year were a dumpster fire, and this year owner Tepper seemed to pour his drink on the flames. New head coach Canales has his work cut out for him, but while with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he did successfully resurrect Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield (though those guys had some all world players like D.K Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin). New pick Xavier Legette is being added to end-stage Diontae Johnson and Adam Theilen- though Theilen is a crisp route runner, and if he's still physically intact, might still command a high volume of targets as the safety valve for sophomore quarterback Bryce Young. Xavier’s rookie campaign will probably see him and Young learning on the fly- with Young still having pre-existing connections with other targets. While Legette has all the physical traits to be a NFL mainstay, his cons could be his understanding of coverage and how quickly he can learn and execute against it real time. Legette's only real hope for fantasy relevancy is if he magically finds instant chemistry with Young and/or if he can overtake Theilen on the depth chart. Honestly, I'd bet more on those two things coalescing next season than risk high draft capital in redrafts this year.
3. Jonathan Brooks: Panthers, RB
The Panthers, in their hopeful quest for an at least tentative reformation, selected running back Brooks out of Texas in the second round. He joins a less talented but crowded backfield, including Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard. Hubbard overtook Sanders last year as their lead back, but the Panthers offensive woes lowered what Hubbard tried to bring to the table. Running backs are fantasy gold, but this year’s offense and crowded backfield seems too rich for Brooks to come out as a RB3- especially with today’s signing of former Seahawk and Eagle, Rashaad Penny. Sadly, the Panthers offense will probably still stink this season, and despite all of Brooks’ upsides, it might be worth a wait until they figure out some more pressing issues.
Last but not least, only those draftees for whom time will tell…
Brian Thomas, Jr.: Jaguars, WR
Brian Thomas, Jr., has the widest and most differing range of analyst coverage from both the prospect scouting and fantasy communities. Thomas, Jr., played second fiddle at LSU behind Malik Neighbors, BUT had Heisman winner Jayden Daniels throwing the football. Thomas lined up everywhere, but was seen primarily on the outside. NFL pundits believe he is best slated in the same position as Christian Kirk, but I feel like he can really erupt as a straight line deep threat and if given the chance, can add route running and crossers to his skill set. I’d posit Tee Higgins as a player comp to Brian Thomas, Jr., thinking he could approach Tee's rookie stat line of 600 yards with 5 TDs at his ceiling. However, with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones’ departures, there are several vacated target spots, and I think the Jaguars might take a committee approach in filling those gaps. Tight end Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and newly signed Gabe Davis might have a huge market share in the offense, diminishing Thomas’ fantasy worth. I wouldn't mind Thomas, Jr., in dynasty leagues, but I'm going to wait to see the ADP for Thomas in redrafts.
2. Malik Neighbors: Giants, WR
Neighbors is not only a dominant wide receiver, but an athletic freak. Unfortunately, he can't throw the ball to himself. Neighbors has the misfortune of being drafted by a Giants team quarterbacked by Daniel Jones. While Jones had some glimpses of being an NFL caliber quarterback, they were sadly brief. Jones' highest touchdown total was 24- across 14 games. Head coach Brian Daboll's job might be attached to his quarterback’s ability to perform, so Jones might be on a short leash this year. The Giants picked up an intriguing backup in Drew Lock, but his body of work resembles Jones. The dismissal of Saquan Barkely and subsequent addition of Devin Singletary doesn’t really invoke confidence that this offense is going to fire on all cylinders. With all that being said, Malik is a truly gifted wide receiver, and we've seen fantasy players become relevant even while their teams are simultaneously awful. Malik really needs to be the focal point of the offense and see a high target volume to offset a most likely lower touchdown number- a scenario which IS possible, should the coaching staff go in this direction and if Jones can consistently connect with him.
Photo Credit for Jayden Daniels: Kirby Lee- USA TODAY Sports
Photo Credit for Bo Nix: Megan Connelly/ fi360 News
Photo Credit for Blake Corum: Brian Gillis- SB Nation
Photo Credit for Keon Coleman: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Photo Credit for Xavier Worthy: Sara Higgins/American-Statesman
Photo Credit for Caleb Williams: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Photo Credit for Xavier Legette: Chris Carlson- ABC 11
Photo Credit for Jonathan Brooks: Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK
Photo Credit for Brian Thomas, Jr.- Tammy Anthony Baker, Photographer, FB: tammyanthonybaker X: tmabaker Inst: tabinla
Photo Credit for Malik Neighbors: SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network
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