Let me preface this guys with a little insight on how I come to pick a player, and why I think they will outperform where they are drafted. A majority of this insight comes from roster space, and how many minutes a night the player is going to get. Fantasy can sometimes be counterintuitive in the sense that sometimes the higher skilled player might not put up the most fantasy points. A player on a bad team with alot of minutes can sometimes get alot of garbage time points, or in basketballs case get random rebounds or random assists by just existing out there on the court. On the contrary, sometimes highly skilled players can get traded or go to a team where he might see less minutes , but the quality of his looks goes up: therefore he's shooting less shots, but maybe scoring more consistently. We also have to consider ADP is calculated by these apps and where other players are drafting them, and sometimes the majority of people gets caught up in a players name, or a situation and inflated a players ADP. So here is my list of players who will outperform their NBA ADP. We will be using yahoo as our points system and ADP.
Zion Williamson, PF/C, Pelicans, ADP 55. - Look, in order for this prediction to be accurate, Zion actually has to be on the court. Hopefully, Zion's crazy injury past is behind him, and he can get in 65+ games this year. On a per game basis, Zion, is putting up some otherworldly PER, and efficiency numbers. The translation to fantasy, is, Zion can be the hub of an offense at the center position, can provide high points, and high defense statistics. The Pelicans are primed for a playoff push in the west and will most likely be playing Zion as much as humanly possible. He also has been very good in the preseason and hasn't had to many limitations. He could very easily return top 20 value if he's healthy.
Dennis Schroeder, PG, Raptors, ADP 138- We can take skill out of this, and Schroeder could outpace this ADP by just being the Torontos main point guard. Varying people will have two different opinions on Dennis. On the Hawks, he was a top tier player, and distributor, and ended up turning down alot of money to be a bench scorer on a bunch of random teams. He has shown glimpse in those brief stints, but on Toronto he has the keys to the offense. Dennis, is also coming off a good medal at the Fiba tournament with Germany, where he flashed some efficient points guard play allowing Germany to over achieve. Dennis actually won the MVP of the whole tournament! I personally think as a distributor he is a high level NBA player that can provide consistent fantasy production. I don't think he's going to average as many points as Fred Van Vleet, the outgoing point guard, but he will provide a lot of assists. The coaching at Toronto has often played their starters and exorbitant amount of minutes, which also leads to fantasy relevance.
De'Anthony Melton, PG/SG, 76ers, ADP 117- With all the Harden drama going on, Melton, has played the starting point guard for the 76ers and has fill in admirably. Known primarily for his steals and more defensive prowess off the bench, Melton has shown an offensive side we haven't seen before in that role. If the Harden drama ends up with him getting traded, and hopefully for someone that isn't a point guard, Melton could continue to put up some decent points while having that defensive upside to fall back on. He is going on have to content with Tyrese Maxey, but I think he could start at either PG, or SG.
Derrick Lively, Center, Mavericks, ADP 187- Simply put lively is a high upside rookie who has earned a starting spot with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving passing him the ball. Any defensive upside is a plus to this, and his ADP is entirely to low.
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Great info.