Caleb Williams, USC, 6'1, 210 lbs
2022 Heismann Trophy Winner
2022 Season: 4,537 total yards; 42 TDs, 5 INTs; 168.5 Rating
2023 Season: 3,633 total yards; 30 TDs, 5 INTs; 170.1 Rating
Floor: Baker Mayfield
Ceiling: Diet Patrick Mahomes.
With his Quarterback Pro Day coming up tomorrow, all eyes are on rising USC star Caleb Williams. Let it be known, though, I don't think Caleb is as good as Patrick Mahomes, though many analysts are comparing the two. The league is a copycat league, and with Mahomes’ meteoric rise, anyone whose play style even remotely resembles his will immediately have NFL scouts salivating at the chance of snatching up the next perennial Super Bowl winner. It would be naive for me to say that I projected Pat Mahomes out of college to be what he is today, but let's try and prognosticate about Caleb now.
Caleb has elite improvisational skill, which is his biggest comp to Pat. When a play breaks down he can twist and contort his body to bend the defense to his will and flick, flip, or throw the football to an open man. He can also read coverages and when a play breaks down, scamper for a first down unscathed. He throws a pretty accurate ball, and his size is similar to Baker and Mahomes’, though shorter than other top draft prospects, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and UNC’s Drake Maye.
My biggest concern- and why I'm not as high on him- is the poise aspect. He had a much better college squad than Mahomes did, and yet he seemed to disappear against top talent. Notre Dame: 199 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT; Utah 256 yards, 0 TD; and Oregon 291 yards, 1 TD. I feel like for such a generation prospect, we need to see him show up in big moments- especially with the coach and roster that he had. Mahomes didn't have this same type of cast in college, and yet in the NFL, has really shown up when it matters most. All that being said, it's hard to forecast players that have skill sets like Mahomes and Williams with any true accuracy, because when you analyze tape, you’re primarily looking for good footwork and accurate throws- precisely because improvisation and calmness under pressure don’t necessarily translate one-to-one to the NFL.
In that regard, Caleb has a penchant for making almost every throw at an NFL level, but what isn't as easily measurable is his improv skills- and the question that hangs in the balance is if he has the poise to execute these same types of scramble plays under NFL-level pressure. Before Pat came along, most coaches would probably have looked at these intangibles as potential detractors, arguably inconsistent and unreliable. However, Pat has demonstrated these abilities to be clutch in very big moments- AND has an all-world playmaker. Pat has gone on the record saying Andy lets him be himself, giving him the space to scamper and throw all his crazy tosses as needed in real time.
Caleb has a lot of tools to give himself a serviceable NFL career, but I don't see him as a closed-case generational prospect. There have been some legitimate off-field concerns that have planted seeds of doubt as to his attitude and suitability as a role model. He’s also drawn public attention with his refusal to provide medical information to NFL teams during the combine and the rumor that he’s got an elitist short list of which teams he’s willing to go play for. Plus, there’s some guffaw surrounding his money asks (his father reportedly wanting him to have a minority stake in whatever NFL franchise he goes to), which some interpret as unwarranted entitlement.
And already, Caleb is showing up in commercials (Wendy’s, Dr. Pepper) and establishing himself as his own brand. I’m always nervous when guys eventually graduate to commercials, because often, it foretells the beginning of a decline in their field ability, and they are trying to cash in on their popularity before retirement. (Though, to be fair- the recent Kelce, Mahomes, and Andy commercials do show you can spend time filming commercials and still get your field work done 😂.) One supposition is that Caleb’s trying to cash in on the hype he’s generating as a college athlete and NFL prospect without even donning an NFL jersey yet. However, given the debates about paying college athletes in recent years, negative interpretations of his commercials could simply be biased and outdated.
The chatter of nay-sayers amounts to added pressure for Caleb, but considering the spotlight that’s put on college football, I think the between-the-ears mental aspect IS there for Caleb, and he probably thrives on the challenge such cautious skepticism stirs up. But- as much as we want to predict how a prospective QB’s mentality and game intelligence will determine NFL production, it's entirely too difficult to qualify or even hypothesize, as we’ve seen time and time again with past QB draft disappointments- and surprise success stories.
As such, I am of the opinion that Caleb's fantasy upside and QB development are going to be dependent on an offensive coordinator and head coach that will allow him to accentuate his positives and hide the negatives (including potential complications as to his persona or character) rather than completely relying on his raw game talents and athleticism. Who ends up drafting him (I'm looking at you, Bears) will ultimately- mostly- decide his fantasy value and career trajectory.
Source of Stats: ESPN
Top Photo: Rick Scuteri / AP Photo
Middle Photo: Getty Images
Bottom Photo: Eric Ray Davidson with GQ (https://www.gq.com/story/caleb-williams-profile)
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